Job Market Paper

Job Market Paper
"Optimal Dynamic Selection Under Costly Evaluation: Evidence from Graduate Admissions"

This paper uses graduate admissions to study dynamic selection under costly evaluation. With a synthetic data protocol to protect applicants' privacy, I relate acceptance to measures of success, such as job placements. I then estimate structural models of an admissions committee's decision problem that capture first-round filtering and waitlists, and I develop statistical tests of whether observed decision rules are optimal given time and effort constraints. To determine which if any applicant characteristics are incorrectly valued, I quantify deviation gains from adopting counterfactual decision rules. This framework is applicable to multiple settings where decision-makers face uncertain outcomes and evaluation costs.

Working Papers

"Resource Optimization Under Asymmetric Spillovers in the NFL"
with Satyam Anand

Work in Progress

"Estimating Dynamic Dependence in Sequential Contests: Evidence from Professional Tennis"
with Nicolas Legrand
"Optimal Replacement of Harry Kane: An Empirical Model of Daniel Levy"
with Satyam Anand and Axel Anderson
"Investigating Sign Stealing in Major League Baseball"
with Alexandre Olbrecht
"Egressosmetrics: Monitoring Graduate Alumni in Brazil"
with Jevuks Matheus de Araújo, Cauê Dobbin, Tatiane Tenório da Gama Leite de Freitas, and Rômulo Eufrosino de Alencar Rodrigues
"Equilibrium and Randomness in Amateur Tennis"
with Tom DiVincenzo and Ainika Hou

Publications

with Axel Anderson, John Rust, and Kin-ping Wong
Journal of Political Economy, 133(1), 2025, 190–251.
with Alexandre Olbrecht
Contemporary Economic Policy, 38(2), 2020, 313–326.

Selected Media & Other Writing

"NFL Quarterback Projections: Stats, Rankings"
with Alexandre Olbrecht and Aaron Schatz — ESPN (2021–2026, annually)
Featured in The Q Factor: The Elusive Search for the Next Great NFL Quarterback
by Brian Billick and James Dale (with Alexandre Olbrecht), 2020.
Additional pieces at Topspin Shot Research, Football Outsiders, and Baseball Prospectus